Retailers may be able to identify which customers are most likely to spend beyond a discount threshold, according to new research involving Durham University Business School.
The study found that shoppers with a more carefree approach to spending are more likely to receive personalised discount codes. Researchers say these customers often spend substantially more than the minimum required to unlock an offer, potentially generating greater profits for retailers.
How discount thresholds influence spending
The research examined promotions that require customers to reach a minimum spend, including multi-buy deals and offers that reduce the price once a specified amount has been spent. The team analysed data from a leading UK supermarket chain across a range of fast-moving consumer products.
Researchers identified two broad shopping styles. Cautious shoppers generally spent only slightly above the qualifying threshold, while carefree shoppers were more likely to continue spending and exceed it by a larger amount.
The findings suggest retailers could use customer behaviour data to tailor promotions towards people who are more likely to increase their spending. That could help businesses decide which customers should receive personalised offers and improve the return from discount campaigns.
Some products respond better than others
The impact of these promotions also depended on the type of product being sold. Offers had little effect on spending for preventive products, such as sun cream, insurance, helmets and health supplements.
Customers were more likely to spend beyond the threshold on promotional products, including cosmetics, soft drinks, jewellery and experience-based purchases. The researchers said this difference means personalised discount campaigns may be more useful for some businesses than for providers of preventive products.
Durham research behind the findings
The study involved Dr Arezou Ghiassaleh from Durham University Business School, Professor Amanda Jiang from Newcastle University Business School and Ji Yan from the University of Galway.
The research paper, The spending spillover effect of minimum purchase requirement discounts and the role of customer heterogeneity, was published in the Journal of Business Research. Durham University said the findings could give retailers a better understanding of how different customers respond to discounts and support more effective marketing decisions.
The university published the findings on 5 October 2026. Further information is available through Dr Ghiassaleh’s research and Durham University Business School’s Management and Marketing webpages.